Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
